A journalist at a major international business newspaper in April 2001: I have to say I have been quite impressed that so many analysts have had the
intellectual honesty to admit that things dont make much sense at the moment.
FX moves seem to be inconsistent with what is going on in other markets.
I have not come across anyone (ED:else) who predicted how strong the dollar has been. The
figures from Consensus Economics are quite revealing.
I look foward to hearing your thoughts on other fx themes.
A hedge fund manager: Greetings and congratulations on a fine article in Futures Magazine!
An institutional bonds salesman: "Great call! You were the first person to call for an intermeeting rate cut by the Fed in October."
A world reknowned economist: "The important is to realize quicky when one is wrong, and
why!--and also--and this is worse-- when one is right, for the wrong
reasons!--you do better than most I know and that is why I read you with
such interest."
A major money manager: "How are you going to make me more money this year?"
A television business news anchor: "I do not go on the air without reading your report!"
An institutional proprietary futures trader: "I will shift business to wherever you work."
A former colleague: "You are better at calling the market than anybody here."
A technician at a competing firm: "So you're the guy everybody tells me I have to beat."
Bridge News: Trading Game, 11-Jan-1999
--'96 runner-up Poser says stock market slide just days away
Chicago--Jan 11--
The following table lists the top 10 traders for 1998 by total return on their recommendations. A minimum number of recommendations was required to make the top 10 list. A total of 87 traders and analysts participated in the "Plays of the Week" and "Play of the Day" items last year, generating an overall profit of $375,876.
| RANK | TRADER/ANALYST | FIRM | PROFIT |
| #1) | Michael Dancey | LFG | $92,517 |
| #2) | Brice Janney | FIMAT USA | $42,326 |
| #3) | Steven Poser | Poser Global | $29,938 |
| #4) | Charles Mizrahi | Hampton Investors | $28,800 |
| #5) | Ed Solari | Bank of Montreal | $25,446 |
| #6) | Scott Fullman | Swiss American | $24,875 |
| #7) | Craig Larimer | First Chicago | $21,940 |
| #8) | Andre Payne | A. Payne & Co. | $14,050 |
| #9) | Chris Melendez | Sanwa Bank | $12,980 |
| #10) | Joseph Sunderman | Schaeffer's Invst. | $11,287 |
It was a good year for previous "Plays" stalwarts as 1996 runner-up Steven Poser remained in top form with a Top 3 finish this year. Poser--a technician by trade who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis -- turned most of his 1998 profits in S&P 500 futures, including a beautifully timed bearish call just before the July top. He remains wary of the stock market despite recent gains, and he said the S&P 500 was approaching a short-term top that would trigger a violent correction within the next week or 2. The S&P 500 cash index could topple back below 1000.00--especially if the market does not take out 1320.00 in the next few weeks, he said. A summer rally should bring the market back to new highs, but concerns linked to Y2K will put stocks back on the defensive by the fourth quarter, he
said. Overall, the stock market is likely to finish out the year near flat, he said.
In the short run, Poser said, investors should look for ways to position for a stock market decline and a mild bond market rally. Beyond the first quarter, however, he said bonds could start to take it on the chin, with the yield on the 30-year bond climbing toward 6% by year-end. "Ultimately, the revival of the Japanese economy and a higher trending CRB will lead to higher bond yields," he said. "I don't think the CRB will explode from here, but even if it grinds higher, the end of the drop in commodities could be damaging for bonds."
Although stocks are a short-term sale and bonds are a long-term sale, Poser said, trading the dollar will be much more difficult. "I look for range-trading in the dollar as the market tries to balance the risk of repatriation with a struggling Japanese economy," he said. "In the long run, the dollar is a sell against yen, but risk-reward and timing
factors say it's a buy below 110.00 for a move back to 130.00."
Bridge would like to thank everyone who participated in "Plays of the Week" and "Play of the Day," and we look forward to more outstanding recommendations in 1999.
...Steven Poser, analyst with Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in New York, was a newcomer to "Plays" in 1996, but hit the ground running with two quick returns on international debt instruments and continued the winning approach through the year, eventually turning a profit on 64% of his recommendations. [editorial note: his return on equity was the best in the contest]
A technician by trade, Poser says the charts suggest the US bond market is gearing up for a move back to higher yields. 'We should challenge 7% yields in coming weeks...', he predicted."
"Deutsche Morgan Grenfell is closing its fixed-income technical research group...as part of the broad restructuring of the bank. Specifically, DMG plans to focus on other types of analysis. A spokesman says, 'We are looking at relative value analysis."
'Poser is one of the most widely followed bond technicians in the industry', says Alex Saitta, technical analyst at Salomon Smith Barney."
"Steven Poser, formerly a senior technical analyst for Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, will launch Poser Global Market Strategies by mid-August to provide analysis across a broad range off asset classes to institutional investors...
Poser says his new venture will allow him to become more of a strategist than technician because he can use more flexible means to predict market behavior...Poser differentiates himself from straight technicians by using broadly-based economic data, crowd behavior, supply and demand, and money management theory to analyze the market. Straight technicians, Poser explains, tend to rely more heavily than he on specific indicators...
Poser's firm will offer three tiers of service to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds and broker/dealers. The top layer of advisory services will be available to a limited number of clients and consist of a personal phone call to discuss the daily market outlook. The second level will be daily and intraday updates via fax or the Internet. The daily fax, the third level, will be sent at the end of the day, giving a brief review of market activity - including major bond and stock news - and Poser's short-, medium- and long-term outlook."
If you have comments or suggestions, email Steven Poser at: swp@poserglobal.com
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures can be substantial. You can lose all of the money deposited with your broker for margin and may be required to meet additional margin calls beyond that amount. Past results from our recommendations do not guarantee future performance.