Media Coverage
Check out just some of our forecasts over the years
Correctly forecast a Fed Discount rate hike on 24-August-1999
Called for intermeeting rate cut made on 25-Sep-1998
Forecast sharp drop in bond prices
Warning of coming collapse in stock markets
Article in Barrons Online in early May 2003 was based on my call for a major rally in Japanese stocks, which I called to the day.
Correctly forecast new record low yields in bonds in 2002 and said that yield lows set in March 2003 would be beaten, which they were in May.
Warned even before the stock market topped in 2000 that deflation would eventually be an issue. I still do not believe that we will wind up in a deflationary environment, but that still remains a much greater risk than inflation.Called for move to mid-900s in S&P 500 if stocks failed to collapse in March 2003.
Correctly forecast 2002 high in dollar versus yen around 135.
Have been calling for sub-$20 oil since late 2000. Expecting north of $45 for 2002 or 2003.
Correctly forecast in May 2001 that stocks would trade lower by early June before later rally.
Recommended to clients to start accumulating the Euro at the end of June 2001, just before it bottomed
Nailed the turn lower in the bond market as temporary, but forecast correction that took place from March through May 2001
Called March bottom in stocks within two days during February 2001
Warned of possible surprise Fed rate cut at the start of 2001 the day before it happened
Told readers that the CRB would fall back towards 200 in 2001 during the fall of 2000
Called the bottom in bonds at the turn of 2000 within days of the event
Forecast a dollar rally to north of 120 versus the yen in fall 1999!
Forecast the top in the S&P 500 within one point in 2000 - This is revealed in his chapter in "New Thinking in Technical Analysis"
Targeted a rally to over 5,000 in Nasdaq during December 1999 and then called for a drop to below 2,000 within two years
Exactly called the bottom in the bond market at the end of 1999
Not many people were expecting the Fed to raise both the Discount Rate and the Federal Funds Rate on 24-August-1999, but readers of the Global Markets Anticipator were!
For nearly two weeks prior to the 24-August FOMC meeting, we were suggesting that the Fed would not only increase the Fed Funds Rate, but also nudge the Discount Rate higher by 25 basis points. We felt then, and still believe that another rate increase is not likely anytime soon, but that the Fed did not want to be that bullish to the stock and bond markets. An assymetric bias to tightening would have given too harsh a signal, but an increase in the Discount Rate fit the bill exactly. This move should lead to general range trading going forward for stocks, bonds and the dollar, though our overall bias is bullish both stocks and bonds, and after 2000, the dollar too.
Were you expecting a Fed rate cut between the October and November FOMC meetings? Our clients were!!!
On 25-September-1998 we wrote: [If the Fed only cuts 25 basis points], they will be forced to shave rates [again] before the next meeting.
We never wavered from our call for an inter-meeting rate cut. On 15-October-1998, we again reiterated our expectation and recommended purchase of October Fed Funds futures to our clients!
Forecast next leg lower in stock on 26-August-1998, and higher bond prices If you have comments or suggestions, email Steven Poser at: swp@poserglobal.com
Ahh. The return of nirvana! Stocks up, bonds up, prices down. Not that I expect such beauty to continue. The stock market correction to higher prices may now be over.
Please be aware that if the stock markets renew their collapse today, which is very possible, no matter how overbought the bond markets are, we will likely see renewed gains. The trend is still higher in European debt markets, and extensions are possible as long as wave-4 bottoms hold. Picking tops is always a risky game, and it is even more dangerous in bonds if stocks are expected to fall.
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures can be substantial. You can lose all of the money deposited with your broker for margin and may be required to meet additional margin calls beyond that amount. Past results from our recommendations do not guarantee future performance.